By PAULENE POPARAD

Updated growth projections released Friday for Lake and Porter counties show a 239 percent increase over a prior population forecast, according to a South Shore Railroad consultant.

A significant boost in the regional census is needed to justify the railroad’s application for New Starts federal funding to begin studying a South Shore extension from Hammond to Valparaiso known as the Westlake corridor.

Construction costs for the new line were estimated to be about $450 million initially and an additional like amount to bring Westlake passenger service from Merrillville and Hobart to Valparaiso. Federal Transit Administration grants, if approved, would offset much of the cost but the upcoming session of the Indiana General Assembly is expected to address how the local share of the project could be funded.

Friday, William Sheldrake of Policy Analytics, LLC told directors of the Northern Indiana Commuter Transportation District, a public agency that owns and operates the South Shore, that the last population projection done in 2003 showed only 6.08 percent population growth between 2000 and 2030.

But by using more current data and factoring in the surging growth of the Hispanic population --- ten times that of the non-Hispanic population --- Sheldrake said he’s forecasting the Lake/Porter population growth to be between 20.6 percent and 25.2 percent for the same period.

Sheldrake said that rate still lags behind the projected rates of growth for the Chicago collar counties in Illinois.

NICTD general manager Gerald Hanas said they asked Sheldrake to review the methodology used in the previous population study for the State of Indiana that the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission also was using. “It looked like a pretty anemic forecast,” said Hanas.

Sheldrake said he worked with Purdue University studying birth and mortality rates, both in-migration and out-migration, building permits, and employment trends in the Chicago area that would create more job growth there. Except for manufacturing jobs, salaries generally would be 39 percent higher in Chicago compared to those in the NICTD service territory.

Sheldrake also said the 2006 U.S. Census population for Lake and Porter counties already exceeds the state/NIRPC forecast . “We’re 14 years ahead where we were forecast to be by 2020.”

Porter County Commissioner Robert Harper was attending his first meeting as a NIRPC board member. “It sounds like you’re saying NIRPC is relying on an outdated study,” he told Sheldrake. The consultant said his group had the benefit of four more years of data reporting which now points upwards for greater population growth.

NICTD chairman St. Joseph County Council member Mark Catanzarite asked if development of the Westlake passenger extension will affect the population projections. Sheldrake said he did not assume Westlake would be build but certainly adding a major transportation route would change where people live and jobs are located.

Sheldrake said his group will be working on a final draft of their study for presentation to the NICTD board.

Hanas said making an FTA New Starts application is a rigorous, competitive process.

Michigan City re-route

NICTD marketing and planning director John Parsons updated officials regarding an ongoing concept study jointly funded with Michigan City to determine the feasibility of moving the South Shore tracks there; they currently run along 10th and 11th Streets through the heart of the downtown --- the most expensive two miles of railroad NICTD has to maintain, according to Parsons.

By moving the South Shore on separate tracks to a more southerly route near the CSX Railroad and NIPSCO rights-of-way, a new station could be built near Ames Field at Franklin Street.

NICTD currently operates Michigan City passenger stops at 11th Street with 30 parking spaces and at Carroll Avenue with 200 spaces. Up to 400 spaces might be built at a Franklin Street station, which would mimic new South Shore stations in Lake County with high-boarding platforms.

Additionally, the number of grade crossings in Michigan City could be reduced from 32 to 17 both increasing safety and reducing travel time by allowing increased operating speeds.

Parsons said the relocated South Shore tracks also would run south of the Indiana State Prison in Michigan City and enter Porter County near a cinder block plant at the Porter/LaPorte County line near U.S. 12. Very little actual rail relocation would occur in Porter County.

Although tentative, Parsons said the railroad-related costs are estimated to be about $60 million excluding engineering and environmental fees and real-estate acquisition, which together could add another $20 million.

A major issue is identifying a funding source. A federal rail-relocation program is authorized but money currently isn’t appropriated. Parsons said if money becomes available a more-detailed engineering feasibility study would be commissioned; there’s no timeline for the project but additional study will take place.

New cars on schedule

Hanas reported the 14 new passenger train cars ordered earlier this year are on schedule with the first two cars slated for late 2008 delivery. The cars are being manufactured by the Sumitomo Corporation in Japan but will be assembled in Milwaukee, Wisc.

Total South Shore ridership through August is 2,886,127 passengers or a 1.7 percent increase over the record-setting 2006. Ridership out of the South Bend Regional Airport is showing a 6.7 percent increase, but Parsons said wet, cool August weather held down off-peak and weekend ridership.

But October numbers are expected to change significantly.

The Chicago Cubs are in the National League division baseball playoffs, trains stop at 18th street for Chicago Bears home games, the Chicago Marathon is Oct. 7, and Boston College has reserved a six-car train Oct. 13 and the University of Southern California a total of 14 train cars Oct. 20 for their respective football games with Notre Dame in South Bend. Parsons noted Nov. 17 begins the holiday events and festivities in Chicago necessitating extra trains on weekends leading up to Christmas.

In other business NICTD board members were updated on the major signal and catenary modernization projects currently being undertaken, and Hanas quashed what he described as an unfounded rumor that South Shore management would seek to remove its employees from the railroad retirement fund.

Hanas also said the railroad is on a heightened state of alert following what appears to be a deliberate act of sabotage last week of a section of Illinois railroad tracks used by the South Shore. No derailment or injuries resulted.

Posted 10/1/2007