By 2050, a month of
the best weather for attracting summer tourists to Indiana will be replaced
by hotter days that will be too uncomfortable for outdoor activity, while
warmer temperatures will also limit many popular winter activities.
That prediction is
part of the latest Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report,
entitled “Tourism and Recreation in a Warmer Indiana” and released on Monday
by the Purdue Climate Change Research Center.
According to the
report, “Changes will challenge Indiana businesses that rely on tourism and
recreation dollars. In 2016, 79 million tourists visited Indiana, adding
$12.2 billion to the economy and supporting more than 240,000 jobs,
according to the Indiana Office of Tourism Development. Indiana is a
destination for outdoor activities, from Lake Michigan and the Indiana Dunes
in the north, to cultural, culinary and sports draws in Indianapolis, to
rolling hills and peak fall color down south.”
“The bottom line is
that businesses and organizations in Indiana need to think about whether
their operations are well-tuned to the climate we’re experiencing now and
the climate that we’ll experience in the future,” said Jeff Dukes, director
of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. “We already have a different
climate than we’ve had in previous years, and business owners need to be
nimble and ready to adjust to the changes we’re experiencing.”
Indiana
historically has 129 days per year in which the high temperature is between
65-85 degrees F. These so-called “mild days” are considered ideal for
outdoor activities.
“By 2050, a month
of the best weather for attracting summer tourists to Indiana will be
replaced by hotter days that will be too uncomfortable for outdoor
activity,” the Research Center said. “Rising temperatures could replace as
many as 27 of these days per year with uncomfortable and dangerous heat by
the 2050s and 38 by the end of the century. Historically, the state has
about 52 hot days per year, in which the highs reach 85-95 degrees F. By
mid-century, the state is projected to have 72 of these days per year.”
“Extremely hot
days, in which highs above 95 degrees F may limit the amount of time a
person can safely be outdoors, will also increase throughout the state,” the
Research Center added. “Indiana traditionally experiences five of these days
per year but could see as many as 42 by the 2050s.”
“Mild weather is
the sweet spot for outdoor activities, but once you get above that, being
outdoors becomes less appealing,” said Jonathon Day, Purdue associate
professor of hospitality and tourism management and lead author for the
report. “And by the time you get to the 90s and you have a lot of humidity,
being outside is even less attractive. That means that people who provide
outdoor services will need to adapt to these temperatures and invest in
things like shade and cooling, much like some of the much hotter locations
we see around the country today.”
Warmer temperatures
will shorten the coldest part of winter by 20-25 days by mid-century,
leading to mild days starting earlier in the spring and lasting later into
the fall. These extended “shoulder seasons” could lengthen the tourism
season and increase profits for some businesses. “There may be certain
periods at the beginning or end of the summer when our state becomes much
more attractive to people from the south,” Dukes said.
But businesses will
have to plan to take advantage. For example, many water-related attractions
rely on high school students to fill summer jobs. Those employees may not be
available before Memorial Day or after Labor Day, traditionally when those
businesses operate. Higher winter temperatures will also limit the amount of
snow and ice cover necessary for activities such as skiing, snowshoeing, ice
fishing and skating. By mid-century, Indiana’s winters are expected to warm
as much as 6 degrees F, reducing snow cover by 32-41 percent.
“People here like
to go ice fishing, snowmobiling,” Day said. “All of this is going to become
less easy to do in the future.”
“More snow falling
as rain, as well as increased precipitation expected in the spring, may lead
to flooding concerns,” the Research Center noted. “More nutrients washing
from farm fields into nearby water may increase algal blooms and decrease
the safety and desirability of some lakes and rivers. Standing water will
boost mosquito populations and increase the risk of the insects transmitting
diseases such as West Nile virus.”
Businesses,
organizations, and governments need to consider these when planning for
tourism in the future. “Companies, destinations and communities need to be
aware that the changes are coming and be adaptive to them,” Day said. “We
need to build our resilience, be prepared for floods or storms or periods of
heat waves. These effects are going to be hard to predict year by year, but
we know that tourism is going to be impacted directly--and indirectly--by
climate change. We need to be aware and prepared.”