WASHINGTON (AP) - Many of the ills of the modern world - starvation,
poverty, flooding, heat waves, droughts, war and disease - are likely to
worsen as the world warms from man-made climate change, a leaked draft of an
international scientific report forecasts.
The report uses the word “exacerbate” repeatedly to describe warming’s
effect on poverty, lack of water, disease and even the causes of war.
The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will
issue a report next March on how global warming is already affecting the way
people live and what will happen in the future, including a worldwide drop
in income. A leaked copy of a draft of the summary of the report appeared
online Friday on a climate skeptic’s website. Governments will spend the
next few months making comments about the draft.
“We’ve seen a lot of impacts and they’ve had consequences,” Carnegie
Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who heads the report, told The
Associated Press on Saturday. “And we will see more in the future.”
Cities, where most of the world now lives, have the highest vulnerability,
as do the globe’s poorest people.
“Throughout the 21st century, climate change impacts will slow down economic
growth and poverty reduction, further erode food security and trigger new
poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots
of hunger,” the report says. “Climate change will exacerbate poverty in low-
and lower-middle income countries and create new poverty pockets in
upper-middle to high-income countries with increasing inequality.”
For people living in poverty, the report says, “climate-related hazards
constitute an additional burden.”
The report says scientists have high confidence especially in what it calls
certain “key risks":
-People dying from warming- and sea rise-related flooding, especially in big
-Famine because of temperature and rain changes, especially for poorer
-Farmers going broke because of lack of water.
-Infrastructure failures because of extreme weather.
-Dangerous and deadly heat waves worsening.
-Certain land and marine ecosystems failing.
“Human interface with the climate system is occurring and climate change
poses risks for human and natural systems,” the 29-page summary says.
None of the harms talked about in the report is solely due to global warming
nor is climate change even the No. 1 cause, the scientists say. But a warmer
world, with bursts of heavy rain and prolonged drought, will worsen some of
these existing effects, they say.
For example, in disease, the report says until about 2050 “climate change
will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already
exist” and then it will lead to worse health compared to a future with no
If emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil and gas
continue at current trajectories, “the combination of high temperature and
humidity in some areas for parts of the year will compromise normal human
activities including growing food or working outdoors,” the report says.
Scientists say the global economy may continue to grow, but once the global
temperature hits about 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than now, it could lead
to worldwide economic losses between 0.2 and 2.0 percent of income.
One of the more controversial sections of the report involves climate change
“Climate change indirectly increases risks from violent conflict in the form
of civil war, intergroup violence and violent protests by exacerbating
well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic
shocks,” the report says.
Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn’t
part of the international study team, told the AP that the report’s summary
confirms what researchers have known for a long time: “Climate change
threatens our health, land, food and water security.”
The summary went through each continent detailing risks and possible ways
that countries can adapt to them.
For North America, the highest risks over the long term are from wildfires,
heat waves and flooding. Water - too much and too little - and heat are the
biggest risks for Europe, South America and Asia, with South America and
Asia having to deal with drought-related food shortages. Africa gets those
risks and more: starvation, pests and disease. Australia and New Zealand get
the unique risk of losing their coral reef ecosystems, and small island
nations have to be worried about being inundated by rising seas.
Field said experts paint a dramatic contrast of possible futures, but
because countries can lessen some of the harms through reduced fossil fuel
emissions and systems to cope with other changes, he said he doesn’t find
working on the report depressing.
“The reason I’m not depressed is because I see the difference between a
world in which we don’t do anything and a world in which we try hard to get
our arms around the problem,” he said.